The global steel landscape presents a tale of contrasting fortunes this week, with regional markets displaying divergent trends that reflect underlying economic pressures and policy interventions. From Japan's inventory challenges to China's government-backed recovery, here's our comprehensive analysis of the latest developments.
Japan
Export scrap prices in Japan retreated significantly, declining by JPY 550/t ($4/t) week-over-week to JPY 40,700/t ($276/t) FOB Tokyo Bay on July 25. This notable decrease reflects broader market dynamics as trading activity remained disappointingly thin across major export channels.
Market intelligence reveals that key import destinations are grappling with elevated inventory levels, creating a supply-demand imbalance that pressures Japanese exporters. The ripple effect of global economic uncertainty continues to dampen international appetite for scrap materials.
On the domestic front, scrap prices demonstrated resilience despite tepid demand, maintaining their range within JPY 38,000-40,500/t ($255-272/t). This stability suggests that Japan's internal market has found a temporary equilibrium, even as export channels face headwinds.
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China
Chinese domestic HRC prices surged upward, climbing Yuan 100/t ($14/t) compared to the previous week to reach Yuan 3,290/t ($459/t) on July 26. This robust gain directly reflects the upward momentum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), signaling renewed market confidence.
Export HRC prices followed suit with an impressive $20/t weekly increase, reaching $478/t. The price surge has been underpinned by several new government infrastructure projects, injecting optimism into a market that has struggled with oversupply concerns.
Market participants are closely watching for additional government intervention to address the persistent steel oversupply situation. The anticipation of further policy support continues to buoy sentiment across Chinese steel markets.
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Vietnam
Vietnamese import data reveals a nuanced market dynamic. The average import HRC prices from China stood at $491/t CFR Vietnam in early July, representing a modest $2/t decrease compared to early June 2025. However, this figure marks a significant retreat from early 2024 price levels, highlighting the broader deflationary trend in regional steel markets.
The first six months of 2025 painted a clear picture of market correction, with average HRC prices at $495/t—a substantial 12.7% year-over-year decline compared to the same period in 2024. Current market conditions reflect weak demand for finished steel products amid sufficient inventory levels, creating a challenging environment for both importers and domestic producers.
Europe
Northern European HRC markets delivered an unexpected turnaround, with prices climbing considerably by EUR 22/t ($26/t) this week to EUR 558/t ($653/t) on July 25. Southern Europe mirrored this positive momentum, recording an EUR 8/t ($9/t) increase to EUR 528/t ($618/t).
However, this price recovery tells only part of the story. Despite the week-over-week gains, demand fundamentals remain deeply concerning, with bookings proceeding at an unusually slow pace. The disconnect between price movements and underlying demand suggests market volatility may persist in the coming weeks.
America
US HRC prices edged down $4/t to $871/t, though tariff expectations continue supporting elevated pricing. Domestic rebar, wire rod, and scrap prices remained stable this week.
Export slab prices declined $2/t to $470/t FOB, while high-grade iron ore (65% Fe) gained $1/t to $115/t CFR. Import CRC surged $25/t over two weeks, reaching $675/t CFR.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
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